Vatnajökull covers a sizeable proportion of Iceland’s land area. This enormous ice field takes up about 8% of the country, the largest glacier in Iceland by a considerable margin. In total, Icelandic glaciers contain 3500 km3 of ice, and the Vatnajökull glacier is responsible for 3000 km3 of that. Its vast scale is plain to see. It’s no wonder that so many people want to get a closer look for themselves by joining an activity tour such as the blue ice cave tour during winter and boat tours out onto the glacial lagoon here at Fjallsárlón Glacier Lagoon in summer. Around Vatnajökull Glacier natural attractions are plenty.
Invincible as it seems, Vatnajökull glacier isn’t immune to the effects of climate change. In this article, we’ll take a look at the history of climate change on our planet, explore the impact of human activity and discuss what the future might hold?
Iceland’s maritime climate
Iceland enjoys a maritime climate; the effect of being surrounded by oceans means that the temperatures are higher, perhaps as much as 8 or 10°C, than they would be at this latitude if instead it was influenced by a continental climate. In the early centuries of settlement, the country was much colder, but this warming trend has been evident throughout the 20th century and into the 21st century.
According to a climate report produced by the Icelandic Met Office, between the 1960s and 1980s, temperatures dropped a little, but in recent decades, they’ve risen in the region of about 0.47°C per decade, around three times faster than the global average warming rate during the same period. The west and northwest of the country have been more affected rather than the area we find on Vatnajökull southside.
Patterns from the past
Scientists have made in depth studies of what life would have been like on our planet before people settled. We know that the Earth has gone through cold spells which we refer to as Ice Ages. In between, we live through interglacial warm periods. Analysis of data representing the situation on the planet over the last million years indicates that these cycles have occurred throughout its existence.
Such cycles have various causes. In the past natural factors would have been the most significant, such as variations in the sun’s activity and the Earth’s orbit, volcanic eruptions (especially those where huge quantities of ash have been ejected into the atmosphere), and levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases including methane.
The impact of human activity
In recent decades, we have become much more aware of the role that people’s actions have played in this climate cycle. Activities that result in emissions of carbon dioxide have come under particular scrutiny. It’s not as simple as cause and effect, but scientists believe that our actions have exacerbated the warming cycle. In short, it’s a quicker and more dramatic change than it would – and should – have been.
So what do emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases do that’s so harmful? When coal and oil are burned, the carbon they store is released back into the atmosphere. This is a common practice, whether those emissions are from the fuel that we burn in our cars, the non-renewable energy that is used to manufacture goods or the power stations that produce electricity.
Geothermal Energy
Thanks to Iceland’s abundance of geothermal energy, we’re able to rely much more heavily on renewables than many other nations have done. But even here, the commodities we rely on, even the production of our food, creates a carbon footprint. As the population of our planet has grown and modern society has encouraged consumption, the problem has become bigger and bigger.
Back to the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere: it absorbs heat. So too do other greenhouse gases such as methane and nitrous oxide – they’re better at it in fact, though far less of them are released. These gases collect in our atmosphere and they form a kind of blanket which traps the sun’s heat.
In doing so, the earth’s air and ground temperatures increase. As ice melts, the problem is compounded, as white surfaces reflect heat back into the atmosphere. When the ice isn’t there, the surfaces are darker, whether in the form of land or sea, and so less heat is reflected away. In the Northern Hemisphere, we call this Arctic Amplification and Iceland is affected because of its location close to the Arctic Circle.
At least one Icelandic glacier has already been lost – OK
According to the Icelandic Met Office, rates of glacial retreat in Iceland have accelerated since the Millennium. The first Icelandic glacier to officially lose its status was Okjökull. This small glacier was located just west of the much larger Langjökull in the western part of the Highland region. In 2014, it was accepted that the ice had been lost forever, when a geologist called Oddur Sigurðsson declared that the ice that was left was insufficient to move under its own weight.
Five years later, to emphasise what we have to lose, a ceremony was held at the site to mourn its loss. If you visit today, you’ll be able to read an inscription on a commemorative plaque which reads:
“Ok is the first Icelandic glacier to lose its status as a glacier. In the next 200 years all our glaciers are expected to follow the same path. This monument is to acknowledge that we know what is happening and what needs to be done. Only you know if we did it.”
It’s a powerful statement, penned by Icelandic author Andri Snær Magnason but a sentiment echoed by many others. It was a sad moment: Iceland’s first named glacier lost to climate change and a warning that glacier retreat and glacier loss in Iceland was a very real prospect.
Visit now before it’s too late
Drastic change is likely to be a reality for Iceland’s glaciers. The Icelandic Met Office claims that Langjökull could lose 85% of its volume by the end of the 21st Century. According to an article on the Vatnajökull National Park website, which looked into the possible impact of temperature change on Skálafellsjökull, Heinabergsjökull and Fláajökull, modelling suggested they would lose as much as 25 to 35% of their volume if temperatures rose by just 1°C.
The effect on these outlet glaciers gives us an indication of the changes that might be apparent in the shape of Vatnajökull. An increase in temperature of 2°C has an even more catastrophic outcome: Vatnajökull’s outlet glaciers could realistically be expected to shrink by nearly 60%. So a degree or two might not seem much in the grand scheme of things, but to glacier ice – and Iceland – it’s a really big deal.
As a consequence, we face a global climate crisis like never before. For now, Vatnajökull is safe but we cannot take its presence for granted. Its immense size means that many other smaller glaciers will be sacrificed before we lose it. But over time, the glacier tongues will retreat and the lagoons such as Jökulsárlón Glacier Lagoon and Fjallsárlón Glacier Lagoon will grow, changing the Icelandic landscape forever and presenting new challenges for those who live, work and travel there.
If you’re keen to see Vatnajökull in its present state, guided tours of a Breiðamerkurjökull ice cave has a huge attraction for travellers who want to explore natural blue ice caves as well as the iceberg-strewn Fjallsárlón glacial lagoon operates boat tours seasonally.
